Final Predictions, Prognostications, and Guesses for 2012
I think turnout will be a bit less than what we saw in 2008. Romney may even be able to win the popular vote, but that might be under an extreme circumstance.
Mitt Romney’s Governor Problem…
Obama leads Romney 48 percent to 42 in Nevada. That’s down from the same poll in March that showed Obama leading 51 to 43.
Nevada is going to be a key state this November and Romney is going to need to win a hand full of states that the President carried in 2008 in order to win the election. Governor Romney is struggling in states like NV, NM, and even CO. Governor Romney is still behind, though he remains competitive, in states like Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. One thing these states all have in common (besides Colorado)… they have Republican Governors with a recovering economy.
This fact makes things a little awkward. While you have candidate Romney showing up in your state to tell your residents (and voters) how bad things are you as the Governor have been running around the state touting all the success and the improvements the economy has been making.
Take Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval for example…
“There’s no doubt the economy is improving,”
Or ask Ohio Governor John Kasichs’ what he thinks of Mitt Romney’s hell scape jobs numbers in Ohio…
“All we’ve done in Ohio is to create a better environment… When I took office, we were 48th in the country in job creation. And in February, working with my partners in the legislature, we were the No. 1 job creator in America, and we’re No. 4 today.”
If you don’t believe those guys just ask Florida Governor Rick Scott how the economy is doing
“Our state is doing extremely well,” Scott told the NALEO conference, which was held in Florida. “We still have 800,000 people out of work, but we’re changing it. Tourism is way up, jobs are up, housing prices are staying stable. If you want to buy a house, now is the time. “
This news is great for Nevadians, Ohioians, and Floridians… bad for Mitt Romney’s campaign. It is extremely difficult for Romney to roll into one of these states and talk about how depressing and scary Barack Obama has made your state when your Governor is saying things like “Our state is doing extremely well,”. It’s hard for Mitt Romney to say things like “we need more jobs” when state’s like Ohio are going from 48th to 1st in job creation. In each of these states things are in fact improving, who gets credit for that improvement is still up for grabs, but Mitt Romney doesn’t want anyone touting successes when he is running for President this cycle.
The Morning News Dump
Jule 3, 2012 morning news dump
- US manufacturing falls for first time in nearly three years
- Obama super PAC will target Romney in New Hampshire
- Poll: Obama leads in swing-state Nevada
- Heller, Berkley neck-and-neck in latest Nevada poll
- Poll: Political independents outweigh partisans
- Poll: Latinos back Obama
- Obama Leads By 3 Points, Democrats’ Enthusiasm Ticking Up
- NYT Poll: Economy Cuts into Obama’s Youth Support
- Poll: Vast support for new health care effort
From The New York Times Firve Thiry Eight Blogger Nate Silver
President Obama, who got good news in Thursday’s health care ruling, received more overnight on Friday when European leaders agreed to terms on a bank bailout. That sent the S.&P. 500 up by 2.5 percent on the hopes that this will reduce some of the downside risk in the economy.
Since the stock market is one of the economic variables the model considers, Mr. Obama’s probability of winning the Electoral College rose with the European news, to 67.8 percent, his highest figure since we began publishing the model this month.The government also released data on personal income on Friday, another economic indicator the model uses. It rose by 0.2 percent in May, somewhat stronger than in most previous months and slightly beating market expectations. Still, personal income growth has been extremely sluggish for most of Mr. Obama’s term and remains the most pessimistic of the economic indicators the model uses.
McConnell: I’ll repeal Obamacare as majority leader
“If [Mitt] Romney is in the White House and I am the majority leader of the Senate, I assure you repeal of Obamacare is the first item on the agenda,” McConnell on Laura Ingraham’s radio show Friday.
Of course McConnell like many of his Republican counter parts stop short of actually endorsing or suggesting an alternative for any plan to replace Obamacare.
From The Hill
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reserved $5.1 million of fall airtime in Ohio, a sign they believe Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) faces a serious threat from Ohio state Treasurer Josh Mandel (R).
The total, as relayed by a Republican operative tracking the buy, is so far only on broadcast television, meaning the buy’s size is likely to increase once cable purchases are added.
